Malay Flight MH 17: Accident, Act of War, or Something Else?

My heart goes out to the families and friends who lost loved ones on Flight MH 17, the Malaysian Airlines jet shot down over the Ukraine yesterday.  This is a terrible shock for those Malaysians and others who were already grieving after Flight MH 370 disappeared without a trace last March.  As on Flight MH 370, passengers on MH Flight 17 reflected several nationalities, including Malaysia and Great Britain.  UNLIKE Flight 370, however, wreckage of Flight MK 17 was found immediately.  Without any doubt, the airliner was shot down by a missile; the doubt arises when we try to conclusively place the responsibility for who fired the missile, and especially, WHY the missile was fired at this particular jet.

War is raging in the Ukraine at this time, and my heart also goes out to the people who are willing to die to keep their hard-earned freedom from Russia.  And it is the backdrop of war in eastern Ukraine that causes many people to wonder exactly who shot down the Malaysian jet.  The first scenario, that the jet was shot down by one or other of the warring factions, provides the most obvious, and most convenient, reason for this disaster.  Either rebels or Ukrainian regular forces (or the RUSSIAN armed forces on behalf of the rebels) shot down the airliner for good military reasons, but in a case of mistaken identity.  Many of us older readers recall nearly three decades ago when USSR fighter jets shot down a Korean airliner that had strayed off of the Soviet-authorized flight route into restricted air-space.  That tragedy was condemned world-wide, but especially by Americans.  Unfortunately, just five years later the United States found itself the target of rabid condemnation by the world (EXCEPT the USSR) when a US Navy ship fired missiles to protect itself from an Iranian airliner that was flying low and on a course directly toward the vessel.  Ironically, it was the USSR who asked the rest of the world to "understand and not blame" the United States for the tragic act of self-defense, which could have been avoided had the Iranian crew heeded numerous radioed warnings to steer away from the Navy ship.  Given what we now know about some dedicated jihadists, it was certainly not out of the realm of possibility that the Iranian airplane had been turned into a suicide flight, with over two hundred innocent passengers aboard.

There is another scenario; however, that bears some consideration.  This second scenario is that either the Ukrainian rebels, with the aid of Russian technology/and or Russian technicians, shot down the Malaysian flight, or the Russian army itself shot down the airliner, deliberately, hoping that the blame for this act would fall on the Ukraine.  In either case, Russian officials and rebel leaders began denial of responsibility for this act while the downed plane was still smoldering.  Both parties also began immediately implying that Ukrainian government forces shot down the Malaysian jet.  To further buttress this claim, reporters on the ground stated they had seen the kind of rocket launcher needed for this operation set up near villages under Ukrainian army control.  Meanwhile, the Ukraine also denies responsibility for the incident.   It is clear that both the Russians and the Ukrainian forces possess missiles capable of downing a large airliner.  What is not so clear at the moment is whether the rebels in Ukraine have such capability.  While we do not at this moment know who shot down the airplane, it may be that two of the parties share a much stronger interest than that of the third party in the outcome of this incident.

In the question of who would have the best motive for shooting down Flight MH 17, there are two things worth noting.  First, the Ukraine had nothing to gain by destroying the Malaysian airliner, at least no OVERT gains.  I realize that there could have been some secret motive, but that is the case in almost any situation involving two foreign powers, including our own.   The Ukraine, desperately needing world opinion on its side, would certainly have no good reason whatever for committing this atrocity.  On the other hand, both Russia and the Ukrainian rebels had a great deal to gain if the blame for this disaster fell squarely on the current Ukrainian government.  If the Russians could “prove” that the Ukraine shot down this helpless jetliner, even in a case of mistaken identity, there is a great possibility that the international community would raise an outcry that something should be done about the “rogue” Ukrainian government so that our skies could be safe again.  Of course Russia would then act swiftly and decisively, and with the implicit blessing of the rest of the world.  They would quash the Ukrainian government, end the civil war, and bring the Ukrainian people back under the “protective arm” of Mother Russia. 

Regardless of who shot down Flight MH 17, and why, I hope that the responsible party will indeed come forward so that the families of those lost in this tragedy can have their questions answered, and yes, even seek compensation from those responsible, since the airliner was using an international flight lane and none of the warring factions had declared the airspace closed.  The losses will not be any easier to bear, but at least those left behind will have some framework from which they can deal with their terrible loss.  As many of us here in America know, it is very difficult for a legitimate government to step forward and say that a mistake was made and innocent people were killed; however, in this case I believe that whichever party does so will gain much respect with the rest of the world, and especially with the bereaved family members and friends, and the world will understand, if never approve of, this latest Malaysian Airlines tragedy.